Difference-in-Difference (Control market: Philippines)

• Average decline in sales volume by 784,608 per SKU per month
• Average decline in sales by .9% per SKU per month

Based on 84 SKUs from India and Philippines over 4 quarters following the regulation

Generalized Synthetic Controls (Control market: Philippines)

• Average decline by 537,159 per SKU per month
• Average decline by 1.2% per SKU per month (with effects ranging from -15.6% to 1.76%)

Based on 94 SKUs (with significant change) in the year following the regulation. 90 SKUs have negative ATE (decline in sales).

Event study approach (RDiT)

• Average decline by 3,489,221 (over SKU specific bandwidth periods)
• Average (approx.) per SKU per month effect is -881,116 units
• Average decline by 3.8% per SKU per month (with effects ranging from -28.3% to 8.75%)

Average LATE value for 70 SKUs (with significant changed) in the period following the regulation (period is bandwidth dependent). 61 of these SKUs have negative LATE (decline in sales).

Forecast Outcomes

• Average decline by 6,044,131 over 12 months (decline by 503,678 per SKU per month)
• Average decline by 1.1% per SKU per month

Average ATE for 70 SKUs (which had significant effects in RDiT analysis). ATE for each SKU is computed over a 12 month period.

Placebo control 1: Generalized synthetic controls

• Average decline by 686,295 per SKU per month
• Average decline in sales by 1.4% per SKU per month

Based on 77 SKUs (with significant change) in the year following the regulation. 69 of these SKUs have negative ATE.

(Placebo control 1: July 2010 to June 2012 as placebo control)

Placebo control 2: Generalized synthetic controls

• Average decline by 862,373 per SKU per month
• Average decline in sales by 2.9% per SKU per month

Based on 72 SKUs (with significant change) in the year following the regulation. 65 of these SKUs have negative ATE.

(Placebo control 2: July 2009 to June 2011 as placebo control)